With all of the recent news stories about the large insider trades based off of Trump's extending the deadline on "obliterating" Iran, I am curious about what kind of signs one can look for that would signal a ground invasion in the region.
If you were convinced that some sort of "boots on the ground" type of action is going to occur, and, given that there would likely be more lead time of seeing insider trading activity preceding such an event (as opposed to the roughly 15 minutes gained with knowledge of a simple tweet/Truth Post) – what indications would you be looking for, and what kind of moves would you make if you see that evidence of impending escalation?
Question regarding recent insider trading events and the War with Iran
byu/CisFishstick inwallstreetbets
Posted by CisFishstick
9 Comments
Just have long dated puts and calls whichever come first, you harvest , come later -> cut losses
Trading SPY or crude oil can never be insider trading. You are very ignorant of what insider trading laws actually involve.
send your friend to the marines and ask him to tell you before he gets on a helicopter, if he comes back share the tendies, but most likely he won’t so youll keep it all to yourself.
Gold dumping, spy tanking, vix and uso climbing… Yeah there’s really no signal, that’s infortunate
War in the Middle East is always priced in. Another month and we’re headed to highs regardless boots on the ground or not.
There is literally no way you’re going to time it.
If you think it’s certain that there will be boots on the ground in the near future, place a bet on polymarket with the date you think most likely.
Beyond that you can just long whatever you think should rise if we get boots on the ground. I phrase it that way because the market is wildly irrational and for all anyone can tell oil will inexplicably fall to 20/barrel the day marines set foot in Iran.
Been tracking some of these patterns since the whole Ukraine thing kicked off and there’s definitely some telltale signs beyond just the obvious defense contractor pumps. You want to watch for unusual volume spikes in oil futures about 48-72 hours before any major announcements – not just the price movement but the actual contract volumes going way above normal. Also keep an eye on shipping insurance rates for tankers in the Gulf region, that stuff moves before the news breaks because the maritime industry has better intel than most retail traders realize.
The tricky part is separating actual insider knowledge from just smart money making educated guesses based on troop movements and diplomatic chatter. I’ve noticed that when real action is coming, you’ll see coordinated buying across multiple sectors simultaneously – defense, energy, precious metals, even some weird plays in agricultural commodities. The key is looking for patterns that don’t make sense from a normal market perspective but suddenly click when you think about supply chain disruptions from conflict.
If I was convinced something big was coming I’d probably go heavy on crude oil calls with longer expiration dates and maybe some puts on travel/tourism ETFs. The defense plays are usually too obvious and already priced in by the time retail gets wind of it.
Oil producers are still priced at ~$75 a barrel, this is unbelievable how long of a period you can still get in on the trade before people realize there’s no quick way to get out of this mess
If anything is gonna happen, it will happen on Fridays after market closes