US is on track to surpass WW2 debt to GDP ratio in next few years easily
All US fund managers are balls deep invested at ATH lol with little money to buy dips: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/VT68UeYQXR
Stagflation is on the horizon (inflation is sticky and looks like it will continue like even disregarding the Iran war which is gonna accelerate it + we have job losses now in the OFFICIAL numbers EVEN WITH BOOKS BEING COOKED, though anyone trying to get a new job in 2025 knew the economy was fked already)… This means Fed cannot do QE very easily and even if they do you cannot really print your way out of Stagflation, plus I doubt QE will be a magic bullet that stops mass layoffs and white collar offshoring in America and this whole K shaped economy that is teetering despite consumer spending STILL being 70% of GDP BTW even if companies love to pretend B2B business is all that matters… Lol, lmao even
Private credit and venture capital is in the shit hole being over leveraged to the balls on GPT wrapper dogshit startups OR on SaaS that is being rerated lower from 48493944x PE ratio (see like Atlassian stock, Figma stock, Asana stock, basically any fucking SaaS stock even MSFT or NOW which are blue chip SaaS lol)… (look at $KKR or $APO stock and all of YC's and 16z's and etc.'s investments)
Circular financing deals and debt that must see a return eventually for AI bubble spending, I'm talking both the AI labs and all the infrastructure providers (if this debt has to be paid back, stocks that were at ATH will be sold to do so btw)… You can't use ChatGPT or Claude forever while burning tens of billions of $$$ annually… Uber and Spotify and all these unicorns did it for years, but the magnitude of their capex burn into an oven to do so was nothing compared to OpenAI and Anthropic….
Mango is in office, non zero chance bro gets a stroke randomly in next 4y or like does other regarded shit to fk the economy over more and accelerate all of above said reasons
(I'm ignoring the case where Citrini research scenario materializes and AGI comes OR Agentic Ai is good enough to automate most or all white collar white too, but that is a nonzero probability bonus case you can consider if you want, I think that's far away so I'm neglecting it)
Tell me what is bullish for US stocks in the remainder of the 2020s? Like genuinely idk??
The only thing i can think of is stocks are not as overpriced as in 1928 or 1999 from like a P/E or forward P/E looking basis… Otherwise I can't think of any?
Positions: cash and shares (for me individual shares of random shit is nearly the same as cash because being down 20 or 30% in a bear market is nothing and I'll just dca leverage then lol)
Posted by PrthReddits
19 Comments
War ends = inflation goes back to the path of going down.
Rates get cut so job market comes back.
The bull case is – if anything bad happens, the fed will print money to resolve it because it’s the only thing they know how to do
From the shiller PE ratio stocks are just as bad as the 1999 bubble lmao. We have a long way down
Two words, money printer. The second the market starts to really drop they’ll fire it up and starting handing our checks to companies and if we’re lucky average people. This inflation will ultimately get buried back into the markets and the line will go up as it always does.
the bull case is just that there isn’t a better place to put the money.. dollar stays reserve currency, everything else looks worse, so capital keeps coming back regardless of how cooked the fundamentals are
The only bull case would be something out of left field in terms of a discovery of energy generation or a physical labor productivity miracle.
Everything though is pointing to a deflationary spiral as AI displaces white collar workers and boomers die off leaving a glut of housing stock and other assets.
We’ll all be Millionaires soon, still working at Wendy’s. One Burgers will cost $500,000 and a water will be $100000. Will be so rich!
Dey go up
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Just put my fries in the bag plz lil bro. Thsnks
The bull case is. Stock go up and to the right. Companies are making gobs of money
Not that I’m all in on this thought. But there is a chance that AI/robotics leverage productivity. If the productivity grows at a rate of 2-3% vs. Historical 1.5% there is a chance the economy could grow faster than the us debt. This assumes no significant labour displacement or it happening at a rate where new job creation or re-skilling can occur… and some fiscal responsibility on the governments side.
Another thing is that households wealth is at ATH, money tends to find solutions to problems.
Iran thing spirals out of control, triggering global energy crisis and worldwide recession. US ends up being safe haven once again due to it’s energy resources (don’t lecture me on crude vs fracking and refineries setup, I know it wouldn’t be smooth sailing) and the ability to bully others (er, I mean “project power”).
Literally everyone is dependent on the stock market now. It is everyone’s retirement. It will not get fucked for a prolonged period. Calls
Data. Centers. In. Space.
Just trust me, bro
Monthly retirement contributions?
The Trump put is still very real. The longer the market drags, the bigger he’ll taco.
Ronald McDonald and his cholesterol friends finally do the world a solid.